Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Gameplan Afghanistan

Missing in the post-speech analyses is the realization
that the withdrawal date and the fact that US Marines
are touted to land first makes the period before it
Mr. Obama's controversial "Overseas Contingency Operation."
The wording implies that the strategic objectives are:

1. Expand the reach of the central government in Kabul
by replicating the presence of Kabul in a contiguous
zone stemming from Kabul. Nowhere, of course, more
important symbolically than Highway 1 between Kabul
and Kandahar.
2. Shift momentum to pro-government forces
3. Take advantage of the shift in momentum with non-nation-building,
yet transformational, infrastructure.
4. And the civilian political stuff...

There are other implications of an OCO, the most important
I didn't mention: A posture which indicates an endgame
in the previous War on Terror. The argument is clear,
even a hundred thousand more troops would have to be there
till "time indefinite" and so this surge meant as a buffer
to the more important political processes that will determine
Afghan sovereignty going forward. MTC

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